August 2024 forecast archive. Corrected September 14, 2026: the original post overstated the connection between La Niña and Sierra snowfall. Its claim that the NWS expected above-average Sierra snowfall was not supported by a specific forecast and has been removed.
Hola, my friends. The hope back in August 2024 was familiar: get a base down, bring on the storms, and give us a winter worth talking about. The mistake was treating a Pacific climate signal as a promise of Tahoe snow.
What La Niña tells us
La Niña involves cooler-than-average water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and changes in the atmosphere above it. It can shift the usual paths of winter storms.
That shift does not guarantee a snowy Sierra winter. NOAA's analysis shows different snowfall patterns across North America, with considerable variation between individual La Niña seasons. Read NOAA's explanation of La Niña and winter snowfall.
What matters here in Tahoe
A seasonal outlook helps us look ahead. Each incoming storm still has to deliver: where it tracks, how much moisture reaches the Sierra, and how high the snow level sits. Rain, snain and #ColdSmokePow can belong to very different elevations in the same storm.
My wish for a big 2024–25 winter was a skier's hope. It was not a measured snowfall forecast. This article remains dated to that original outlook so nobody mistakes it for today's guidance.
Eyes on the weather ahead
Read today's Lake Tahoe forecast, wind, snow and long-range outlook. That's where you'll find the current update and its issue time.
Stay’nThirsty for POW
Coop
