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Tahoe Sector Watch — Tue Feb 10, 2026 | Storm Returns + Travel Impacts Tue Night–Wed

Winter is back on the throttle.

A two-wave system is sliding through the Tahoe Sector through Wednesday, and the second wave is the one that matters for operations and travel. NWS Reno is flagging meaningful crest accumulations with peak snowfall rates possible late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday, alongside ridgetop gusts pushing into the 60–70 mph zone. Translation: expect rapid visibility changes, intermittent whiteout pockets near ridgelines, and classic “chain up + slow down” conditions across the passes.

The setup:

Today (Tue): light activity early, then the atmosphere reloads this afternoon and evening. Snow levels start higher (~6–7k’) then drop overnight.
Tonight → Wed: the highest-impact window for mountain travel. Crest totals are in the 8–14" range with localized 12–18" potential; lake level / Hwy 395 may see 1–4" in the right bursts.
Thu → Sat AM: a welcomed break with quieter weather.
Weekend → next week: the pattern opens up again. Timing is still uncertain, but the ceiling is higher for widespread impacts.

What changed since yesterday:

Reno’s discussion increased the “Wave 2” ceiling and widened the west-of-395 snowfall language.
Sacramento’s guidance trend over recent updates has been toward higher snow levels and slightly reduced totals.
That spread is exactly why we keep “uncertainty” in the vocabulary — but the operational message stays the same: plan for impacts Tue night–Wed, then pounce on the Thu–Sat AM window.

Choose optimism, make a plan, and go earn it.

Weather map showing high and low pressure systems over North America, with isobars, precipitation areas in green, and temperature contours. A low-pressure system is over the Pacific Northwest and several others are scattered across the continent.

ECMWF AIFS Ens [M] 0.25º Guidance Models

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

A weather map showing atmospheric pressure, temperature anomalies, and heights across North America. Blue shades indicate colder and lower pressure areas, while red shades indicate warmer and higher pressure regions. The map includes contour lines marking pressure levels.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Map showing 72-hour predicted precipitation across the United States and bordering areas, with areas of heavy rainfall indicated in red and orange, lighter rainfall in green and blue, and dry areas in gray.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 72-hr Precipitation (Inches)

Weather map showing total snowfall forecast in inches for parts of California and surrounding areas, with the heaviest snowfall indicated offshore in the Pacific Ocean.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 7 - Day Snow (10:1 ratio) (Inches)

Tahoe Sector Watch — Daily Briefing

Active Weather Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 4 PM PST Wednesday (Tahoe Basin / Sierra zones).

What’s changed since yesterday (AFD-to-AFD deltas)

NWS Reno (REV) — trend: a bit “bigger” on Wave 2 + broader crest/west-of-395 snow

Crest totals increased from ~8–10" to ~8–14", with crest locally 12–18" and Mono high peaks up to ~2’ now explicitly called out.
West of US-395 totals broadened (yesterday’s lower, today’s wider 1–9" language along/west of 395).
Snow-liquid ratios (SLR) nudged higher on Wave 1 (yesterday 7–10:1; today 7–12:1 stated).

NWS Sacramento (STO) — trend over the last couple updates: higher snow levels + lower totals

Earlier STO guidance (Feb 7) carried lower snow levels (start 5–6k’, dropping ~4.5k’) and higher totals (4–10" above 5k, 10–18" above 6k).
Current STO (Feb 9) states snow levels trended higher (6–7k’ Tue, ~5.5k’ Wed) and “latest snowfall totals have decreased” (3–6" above 5.5k’, 8–12" above 6k’, up to 18" peaks).

Bottom line on the deltas:

REV is leaning a touch snowier/broader on Wave 2.
STO is leaning warmer (higher snow levels) + slightly less tot

Weather map showing 6-hour precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and 850mb temperature across parts of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, with color-coded rainfall, black pressure lines, and red contour lines indicating temperature.

NAM 3km Guidance Models - Precipitation

6hr Precip (in), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp (ºC)

Weather radar map showing composite reflectivity and precipitation types over parts of the western United States, with areas of rain and thunderstorms indicated in green, yellow, and red, and snow and freezing rain depicted in blue and pink.

Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type (dBZ)

Satellite weather map showing a large storm system over the Pacific Ocean near California, with heavy rain and thunderstorms. The map includes colored contours indicating precipitation levels in inches over a 24-hour period, with the storm's eye characterized by intense rainfall and swirling cloud patterns.

24hr Precipitation (Inches)

Weather map showing total precipitation in California and nearby areas, with rain levels indicated in shades of green, gray, and purple, and some parts of the coast and islands experiencing light rain.

Total Precipitation (Inches)

Weather Ahead (the real playbook)

Today (Tue)

A relative lull early, then Wave 2 ramps this afternoon/evening with increasing Sierra impacts.
Snow levels: around 6–7k’ at onset, then dropping below 6k’ overnight.
Thunder is a non-zero player (slight chance) — keep heads up for brief bursts, graupel, and quick visibility drops.

Tonight → Wednesday

Peak travel impacts: Tue night into Wed AM (crest/wind + lowering snow levels).
Peak snowfall rates: REV flags up to ~1.5"/hr late Tue evening into early Wed for the crest.

Thursday → Saturday morning

Break in storm activity with a slight warm-up and lighter winds.

Saturday night → next week

Increased storm risk + guidance spread (timing/track/cold air depth still uncertain), but the pattern is trending back to multi-wave winter.

Map showing a significant line of snow in California and Nevada, with lighter snow in surrounding areas, indicating a weather system with snow activity centered in the Sierra Nevada region.

Snow Guidance Models - Snowfall - Snow Totals

NAM 3km - 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

Weather map showing 12-hour snowfall forecast across the western United States, with areas of snow in shades of blue and purple indicating snowfall amounts in inches.

NAM 3km - 12hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches)

Map showing snow accumulation in inches over parts of California, Nevada, and surrounding areas, with a cluster of snow in southern California.

NBM Para v5 2.5km - 24hr Snow (Inches)

Map of California and surrounding areas showing snow accumulation in inches, with the highest snowfall of 6.3 inches in rain blue shades, indicating a snowstorm happening over parts of the Sierra Nevada and nearby regions.

HRRR 3km 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches)

Snowfall + Liquid (SWE/SLR) — verified ranges

NWS Reno (REV) Wave breakdown

Wave 1 (through this morning): up to ~1–2"; SWE up to ~0.25"; SLR 7–12:1 (lower locally).
Wave 2 (late Tue → Wed):
- Crest: 8–14" (with crest pockets 12–18"; Mono high peaks isolated ~2’)
- SWE: ~1.0–1.75" highest peaks; ~0.5–1" elsewhere
- SLR: 9–14:1 (locally lower)

NWS Sacramento (STO) totals

3–6" above 5,500’
8–12" above 6,000’
Up to 18" over higher peaks

NAM 3km Surface Winds | Upper Air Winds

NAM 3km - 80km Wind Speed + Streamlines (Knots)

HRRR 3km - 80km Wind Speed + Streamlines (Knots)

NAM 3km - 0 - 6km Wind Shear (Knots)

HRRR 3km - 0 - 6km Wind Shear (Knots)

Regional Winds

HippieHaus: NNW 2 mph
Camp Rich: ENE 3 mph
Mid-Lake Buoy (NW): E 9 mph
Truckee (TRK): N 1 mph
Donner Pass: E 7 mph
Alpine – Mt Ward: N 10/21 mph
Palisades – Siberia: ESE 6/9 mph
Kirkwood Chair 6: SSE 27/36 mph
Mammoth Summit: NE 21/32 mph

NAM 3km Surface Temps | Upper Air Temps

24hr Min. 2m Temperature (ºf)

24hr Max. 2m Temperature (ºf)

24hr 2m Temperature Change (ºf)

2m Temperature (ºf)

Current Observations ( 05:16)

Regional Temps

South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) 6,308’: 27°F
Truckee (KTRK) 5,899’: 27°F
Palisades – Siberia 8,700’: 24°F
Alpine – Mt Ward 8,643’: 25°F
Kirkwood Chair 6 9,100’: 28°F
Mammoth Summit 11,034’: 23°F

⚠️ Lake Tahoe / Eastern Sierra Avalanche Forecasts:

Status: LOW DANGER (#KnowBeforeYouGo) Caveat: Riders and enthusiasts are to go to the Sierra Avalanche Center website for the latest updates.

Central Sierra: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast
- Issued: Feb 9 (Valid through Feb 10).
- Author: Brandon Schwartz.
- THE BOTTOM LINE: Avalanches remain unlikely today. Isolated areas exist that hold very thin slabs of wind-drifted snow. If you see signs of unstable snow, consider a different route.
Eastside Region: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast
- Issued: Feb 9 (Valid through Feb 10).
- Author: Steve Mace.
- THE BOTTOM LINE: Avalanches remain unlikely today. Monitor for isolated areas of unstable snow in steep or exposed terrain.

Tahoe Aviation (Ops-ready)

This morning: Generally VFR, but MVFR–IFR near showers.
This evening → Wed: MVFR–IFR likely with low clouds + visibility reductions in RA/SN, plus mountain obscuration.
Wind/LLWS/Turbulence: Ridge/FL100 winds ramp with gusts ~45–55 kt, supporting LLWS + turbulence near terrain.

⚓ Lake Tahoe Marine Forecast:

Advisory: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect until 4 PM PST Wednesday.
Forecast: Slight chance of snow morning, showers/thunderstorms afternoon. Rain/snow tonight.
Winds: Light.
Wave Heights: Less than 1 foot.
Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.53 feet (Delta: -0.01 ft).
Water Temp: 43.9ºF.

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