¡Buenos días, my friends
☕️ Cup'O'Joe in hand for #FreakFlagFriday, #StokeLevelFiring.
Watching the pre-game guidance as #MotherNature prepares to shake the weather stick. We’ve had a nice run of calm, but the latest intel suggests a significant pattern change is locking in for next week. The Pacific storm door is swinging open with two distinct periods of activity hitting our sector. If you’ve got fire in your bellies for one more round of #MaNatural, listen up.
❄️ The Inbound Flex: Confidence is climbing as the ensemble guidance shows an upper-level trough finally backing into the region. This isn’t just a minor ripple. It is a legit Spring storm system with the potential to bring wind, rain, and mountain snow back to the Sierra.
🗓️ The Timing and Impact: The first wave arrives late Monday into Tuesday. This initial pulse looks less impressive for totals, bringing a showery scenario with sparse high elevation snowfall of generally less than 6 inches above 7,500 feet. However, the wind will be a factor. Expect gusts to reach 35 mph in the lower elevations and solid 60 mph plus gusts along the Sierra ridges starting Monday afternoon. Temperatures will take a tumble toward more seasonable levels for the end of March.
The second storm, arriving Wednesday and Thursday, is the real wildcard. If this system delivers a direct hit, it will be much colder and more potent than the early week wave. Snow levels could drop as low as 5,000 to 5,500 feet by early Thursday. This setup would produce stronger winds and could bring a #FreshCoat of #MaNatural all the way down to lake level.
🏔️ Mountain Ops and Travel: Mtn teams are at a minimum, Cal Trans teams as well. SO, let's practice patience, and let's get after it. Be aware that at the resorts, the krews may be a little light on snow shovlers, lifties, and snow removal in the bases and parking lots. And over the passes, be aware that Cal Trans, County, and City Snow removal krews will be lil-light as well. We've had another 25 days of #SevereClear, and they've most likely trimmed back on their snow-teams. So, deal and plan ahead.
We will keep a close eye on the trends as the models resolve. Check back tomorrow, as in the Sierra, things can change in a heartbeat.
Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop
ECMWF AIFS Ens [M] 0.25º / GDPS Para 0.15º Guidance Models
ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)
GDPS Para 0.15º 6hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp (ºc)
ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly 5-day
GDPS Para 0.15º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly (m) 5-day
NAM 3km / HRRR 3km Guidance Models - Precipitation
NAM 3km 24hr Precip (in), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp (ºC)
NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type (dBZ)
HRRR 3km 6hr Precip (in), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp (ºC)
HRRR 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type (dBZ)
NAM 3km / HRRR 3km Snow Guidance Models - Snowfall - Snow Totals
NAM 3km - 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)
HRRR 3km - 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)
NBM Para v5 2.5km - Total Snow (Inches)
ECMWF AIFS Ens [M] 0.25º - 10day 3/29-4/3
NAM 3km / HRRR 3km Guidance Models - Winds
NAM 3km - 80km Wind Speed + Streamlines (Knots)
HRRR 3km - Accum. Max 10m Wind Gust (kt)
NAM 3km - 0 - 6km Wind Shear (Knots)
HRRR 3km - 0 - 6km Wind Shear (Knots)
KirkwoodMtn - Chair 6 (Cornice Express) Summit @9,100’
NAM 3km Guidance Models - Temperatures
NAM 3km 24hr Min. 2m Temperature (ºf)
NAM 3km 24hr Max. 2m Temperature (ºf)
NAM 3km 24hr 2m Temperature Change (ºf)
NAM 3km 2m Temperature (ºf)
Sierra Avalanche Center | Eastside Region— Daily Avalanche Forecasts
Central Sierra - https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast
Report Issued on: Thursday, March 26, 2026 - 6:39AM
Expires on: Friday, March 27, 2026 - 4:00AM
Author: Brandon Schwartz
THE BOTTOM LINE: Firm conditions this morning will transition to wet snow as the day progresses. Avalanches of wet loose snow are possible on steep sun exposed slopes where the firm snow surface has mostly melted away. If the snow surface feels unsupportable, mushy, or if you can sink boot-top-deep into wet snow, consider choosing non-avalanche terrain.
Eastside Region - https://bit.ly/EasternSierraAvalancheForecast
Report Issued on: Thursday, March 26, 2026 - 7:00AM
Expires on: Friday, March 27, 2026 - 7:00AM
Author: Greg Cunningham
THE BOTTOM LINE: Wet loose avalanches will continue to be a possibility today. Look out for wet snow on slopes in the sun during the warmest part of the day. Get an early start, and pay attention to what is above you as you move through the mountains.
