#HippieHaus | Kirkwood & Carson Pass Weather Forecast Guidance

Date: October 29, 2025 | Morning Brief @ 0515 PDT

¡Buenos dìas, my friends,

Cup'O'Joe in hand on a #WisdomWednesday, #StokeLevelSolid squarely at 10.5. Temps this morning are crisp: 30ºF at KTVL (South Lake), 28ºF at KTRK (Truckee), and 31ºF here at the #HippieHaus snowplot. Winds are light out of the south (185º) at 2/3 mph.

Bottom Line: High pressure remains firmly anchored, continuing our stretch of beautiful, dry, and unseasonably warm autumn weather. Expect sunny skies and highs pushing towards 70°F in the basin today. Winds stay light. This "benign weather pattern," as NWS Team Reno calls it, looks locked in through the end of October and into the first few days of November. The search for a significant pattern change continues, but the ridge is strong. Sunrise today is 7:18 AM, Sunset is 6:09 PM.

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON!

• Mt. Rose Ski Resort: Opening Day (Nov 8): 10 Days

• Mammoth Mountain: Opening Day (Nov 14): 16 Days

• Boreal Ski Resort: Opening Day (Nov 20): 22 Days

• Alta Ski Resort (UT): Opening Day (Nov 21): 23 Days

• Heavenly Mountain Resort: Opening Day (Nov 21): 23 Days

• Palisades Tahoe: Opening Day (Nov 22): 24 Days

• Snowbird Ski Resort (UT): Opening Day (Nov 27): 29 Days

• Sierra-at-Tahoe: Opening Day (Nov 28): 30 Days

• China Peak: Opening Day (Nov 28): 30 Days

• Bear Valley: Opening Day (Nov 28): 30 Days

• Dodge Ridge: Opening Day (Nov 28): 30 Days

• Revelstoke Mountain Resort (BC): Opening Day (Nov 29): 31 Days

• Sugar Bowl: Opening Day (Nov 29): 31 Days

• Diamond Peak Ski Resort: Opening Day (Dec 4): 36 Days

• Kirkwood Mountain Resort: Opening Day (Dec 5): 37 Days

• Homewood Mountain Resort: Opening Day (Dec 12): 44 Days

• June Mountain: Opening Day (Dec 13): 45 Days
  (Get those skis & boards ready!)

Tahoe Basin Forecast | North & South

Truckee / North Lake Tahoe

• Today's High: ~ 70°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 34°F

• Winds: Calm.

• Sky Conditions: Sunny. (Patchy AM FZFG possible).

South Lake Tahoe

• Today's High: ~ 69°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 38°F

• Winds: Calm.

• Sky Conditions: Sunny.

Kirkwood & Carson Pass Zone

• Snow Forecast: 0 inches. Dry conditions persist.

• Temperatures: Highs today reaching the mid-60s even at pass level. Lows tonight mid-to-upper 30s.

Mammoth Mountain Intel

Warm and sunny continues in the Eastern Sierra under the dominant high pressure.

• Today's High: ~ 68°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 36°F

• Sky Conditions: Sunny.

• Winds: Calm.

Snowmaking Watch / Mountain Operations Intel: Hearing good reports that snowmaking crews at Mt. Rose and Northstar have been able to fire up the guns during these recent cold nights – excellent work teams! Looking at the forecast, tonight offers another window: lows dipping into the low-to-mid 30s (even the upper 20s in coldest spots like Truckee), combined with dry air (low humidity), should allow for more production, especially at higher elevations. However, the overall warming trend this week, with highs near 70°F, means significant daytime melt. There's no natural snow in the forecast due to the persistent high pressure. The key for resorts gunning for early openings will be maximizing these overnight windows before potentially warmer nights arrive later in the week and weekend. The lack of any storm systems on the horizon means it's all up to the snowmakers for now.

Backcountry & Avalanche Report

• Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast | Central Sierra Nevada

• Bottom Line: SAC will start producing Daily Reports in November. Stay tuned.

• #LowTide

Lake Tahoe Data Points | For the Sailors & Paddlers

• Lake Water Temperature (Mid-Lake Buoy): ~56.2 degrees (Estimated gradual cooling)

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): ~6,226.8 feet (Stable)

• Marina Forecast & Wave Heights: Ideal conditions continue. Calm winds, sunny skies. Perfect for any on-water activity. Wave heights less than 1 foot.

Aviation Forecast | KTRK & KTVL

• Overall: VFR conditions prevail across the region today and through the week.

• KTRK Specific: NWS Team Reno continues to highlight potential for patchy shallow Freezing Fog (FZFG) this morning (approx. 10Z-16Z / 3 AM - 9 AM PDT), with a 20-30% chance of brief LIFR CIGS/VIS. Conditions improve rapidly after sunrise.

• Winds: Light and terrain-driven winds throughout the forecast period.

Sierra Road Conditions

The Official Source for 100% real-time road conditions is the Caltrans QuickMap.

• Official Link: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

Morning Assessment: Open and clear.

• I-80 (Donner Pass): Clear.

• US-50 (Echo Summit): Clear.

• SR-88 (Carpass Pass / Carson Spur): Clear.

Seven-Day Sierra Forecast

• Today (Wed): Sunny & Warm. Highs: upper 60s/low 70s (Tahoe). Lows: mid-upper 30s. Winds: Calm.

• Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Highs: upper 60s (Tahoe). Lows: mid 30s. Winds: Calm becoming SW ~5 mph.

• Friday: Sunny. Highs: upper 60s (Tahoe). Lows: upper 30s. Winds: Calm.

• Saturday (Nov 1): Sunny. Highs: near 70º (Tahoe - Potential Records?). Lows: upper 30s. Winds: Calm.

• Sunday: Sunny. Highs: near 70º (Tahoe - Potential Records?). Lows: upper 30s. Winds: Calm.

• Monday: Mostly Sunny. Highs: mid 60s. Lows: mid 30s. Winds: Light.

• Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. Highs: low 60s. Winds: Increasing?

The Long-Range Pipeline | Searching for a Pattern Break

Alright friends, let's dig into the AFDs from NWS Team Reno and NWS Team Sac regarding this persistent high pressure.

The Current Situation (High Confidence):

• Dominant Ridge: A "broad area of high pressure" remains firmly in control.

• Warm & Dry: Expect dry conditions and temps 4-8º degrees above average through the first few days of November. Record highs near 77°F are possible in Reno this weekend.

• Light Winds: Generally, light winds continue.

Searching for the Change (Low Confidence):

• Ridge Holds: Both AFDs confirm this "benign weather pattern" continues into early November.

• Mid-Next Week System? The only hint of a potential change remains around Wed Nov 5th / Thu Nov 6th. NWS Team Reno mentions a low-pressure trough approaching the coast. This may bring an uptick in winds and chances for mountain snow/valley rain.

• Confidence Remains LOW: Emphasis on LOW. The track, timing, and intensity are highly uncertain. It could easily miss us.

Summary: We are locked into an extended period of beautiful, warm, dry fall weather. Great for activities, not for base building. That mid-next week system is the only blip on the radar, very uncertain. Enjoy the sun, manage the snow stoke.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop. | RS#69